Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
