Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
